Subscribe & stay up-to-date with ASF
ASF has released the annual State of Wild Atlantic Salmon report, a summary of North American population estimates and harvests from fisheries for 2023. The primary source this report relies on was recently published by the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES), following analysis of data collected in 2023 by government agencies in Canada and the United States.
ICES reports that adult salmon returns to North America in 2023 exceeded the 2018-2022 average, continuing a positive trend that began in the early 1990s. Although adult Atlantic salmon returns declined from 2022, we rely on comparisons with the most recent five-year average, offering a clearer picture of trends.
Last year’s overall results were principally thanks to Labrador, where estimates of small salmon and large salmon returns were highest in the 54-year time series used by ICES, dating back to 1970. Every other Canadian region, including Newfoundland, Quebec, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, saw declines in adult returns, especially small salmon.
Small salmon returns were the lowest on record for Quebec and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region, and among the ten worst years ever recorded for Newfoundland. Large salmon returns were also down in 2023 for Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, but stable in Quebec. The positive, multi-decade trend of increasing adult returns to North America is the result of concerted conservation efforts. It began around the time that the last Canadian commercial fisheries closed and is helped by low catches in recent years off Greenland and in Canadian Indigenous and angler fisheries.
These conservation measures are an important counterweight to environmental factors that are causing high rates of marine mortality, including hyper-abundant predator populations, abnormal sea-temperatures, and changes in the prevalence and distribution of prey.
For the first time, the ICES Working Group offers predictions for future returns of Atlantic salmon. They provide estimates for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027. For North America, the scientists predict a dip in returning adults for 2024 and then healthy increases in 2025, 2026, and 2027. These predictions, if they prove reasonably accurate, will be a major benefit to sustainable fisheries management.